Identification of a Bias in the Natural Progression of Swim Performance

The longitudinal progression of athletic records has been described by best fit curves which can be used to extrapolate future athletic performances. Any subsequent significant deviations from these curves would suggest compelling evidence of cataclysmic changes introduced into the sport. We evaluated recent elite swim performances to determine if bias can be identified within competitive swimming. Predictions of the 2008 Olympic swimming competition were calculated for each event and compared to actual performances. 17/26 events in 2008 were significantly faster than predicted (p<0.05). A bias existed during the 2008 Olympic Games such that performances were faster than predicted. Speculation of the causes of this observation include but are not limited to new swim suits, ergogenic aids, better training, and improved technique.